While next week's ceremony is unlikely to be rocked by any great protest (though I'm sure the organisers are gutted that Jada Pinkett Smith is boycotting) the #oscarssowhite debate has at least created a discussion about how the industry and its output reflect wider society. The Oscars are ludicrous (just look at the rules - and nominees - for Best Song, Foreign Language Film and the Supporting Actor Categories) but more than any other awards body (even Cannes) they shape the global discourse on film.
But that's enough politics, on with the fluff.
Best Picture
Who will win The Revenant
Who should win Room
Not even nominated - go figure Carol. Inside Out, Me & Earl & the Dying Girl, 45 Years, Anomalisa
Although prognosticators keep bigging up financial comedy (not an oxymoron apparently) The Big Short, The Revenant has all the awards season momentum this year. It's an easy film to admire but a hard one to love - probably because it doesn't have a lot to say and takes a very long time to say it, rather pretentiously. Room on the other hand, says so much about so much - the parental bond, our perception of the world and the aftermath of abuse. While I'm pleased with the inclusion of the solid, intelligent dramas Spotlight and Bridge of Spies, I am rather perplexed that of the all the big multiplex successes in 2015, Mad Max and The Martian made the cut over Inside Out. The fact that Carol, Me & Earl & The Dying Girl and 45 Years missed out on Best Picture nominations proves that the Academy is not only homophobic and but also ageist towards young people and old people alike.
Best Director
Who will win Alejandro González Iñárritu The Revenant
Who should win Lenny Abrahamson Room
Not even nominated - go figure Todd Haynes Carol
Cineastes beware, Alfonso Gomez-Rejon's cleverly framed Me & Earl & the Dying Girl and Haynes' post modern rendering of the 50's melodrama found no love with with the Directors branch this year. The Revenant has the wow factor with Iñárritu's swirling camera and bravura sequences (the ambush, the bear, the fall off the cliff) although for my money Abrahamson created the most memorable scene of the year in Jack's escape from Room. Giving the award to a Mexican director for the third year running (albeit the same one as last year) will help the Academy feel better about their diversity issues.
Best Actor
Who will win Leonardo Di Caprio The Revenant
Who should win Leonardo Di Caprio The Revenant
Not even nominated - go figure Jacob Tremblay Room
There is a popular belief that great child performances are down to the director, but Tremblay's performance has a timing and naturalism that is, well, preternatural. Tremblay was nominated as supporting actor at the SAGs which is a joke - he is in every scene in Room and, along with Brie Larson, the film's heart and soul. Ghanaian actor Abraham Attah is another amazingly talented young actor looked over this year because of his age, while a trio of Brit old timers - Michael Caine (Youth), Tom Courtney (45 Years) and Ian McKellen (Mr Holmes) would have been more deserving candidates than Damon or Cranston (you get the feeling he was nominated more for Breaking Bad than anything he did in the turgid Trumbo). Which leaves Fassbender who is nominated for the wrong film and DiCaprio who like Pacino, Newman et al will get it because it's his time. I did like DiCaprio's performance in The Revenant though it was nowhere near as affecting as Tremblay's in Room.
There is a popular belief that great child performances are down to the director, but Tremblay's performance has a timing and naturalism that is, well, preternatural. Tremblay was nominated as supporting actor at the SAGs which is a joke - he is in every scene in Room and, along with Brie Larson, the film's heart and soul. Ghanaian actor Abraham Attah is another amazingly talented young actor looked over this year because of his age, while a trio of Brit old timers - Michael Caine (Youth), Tom Courtney (45 Years) and Ian McKellen (Mr Holmes) would have been more deserving candidates than Damon or Cranston (you get the feeling he was nominated more for Breaking Bad than anything he did in the turgid Trumbo). Which leaves Fassbender who is nominated for the wrong film and DiCaprio who like Pacino, Newman et al will get it because it's his time. I did like DiCaprio's performance in The Revenant though it was nowhere near as affecting as Tremblay's in Room.
Best Actress
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| Rampling by Leibovitz |
Who will win Brie Larson Room
Who should win Brie Larson Room
Not even nominated - go figure Rooney Mara Carol
This is a terrific lineup and while J-Law's fourth nomination for Joy seems a tad over-generous - she does bring an old Hollywood charm to David O Russell's comedy dramas. Larson will win, and deservedly so, though Charlotte Rampling's performance in 45 Years is a textbook example of how subtle screen acting can be so quietly devastating. Bel Powley was tremendous in Diary of a Teenage Girl and Mara and Vikander should really be nominated here but hey, there can only be 5.
This is a terrific lineup and while J-Law's fourth nomination for Joy seems a tad over-generous - she does bring an old Hollywood charm to David O Russell's comedy dramas. Larson will win, and deservedly so, though Charlotte Rampling's performance in 45 Years is a textbook example of how subtle screen acting can be so quietly devastating. Bel Powley was tremendous in Diary of a Teenage Girl and Mara and Vikander should really be nominated here but hey, there can only be 5.
Best Supporting Actor
Who will win Sylvester Stallone Creed
Who should win Mark Rylance Bridge of Spies
Not even nominated - go figure Paul Dano Love & Mercy
Anyone with eyes in their head would give this award to Rylance without hesitation, but the Academy loves nothing more than to tug on the tear ducts with a sentimental award to an old timer in a character part (Martin Landau, Christopher Plummer etc). Tom Hardy's Nick Nolte impersonation in The Revenant was a bit ripe for my taste robbing Idris Elba and/or Paul Dano of their rightful inclusion here, though I would also argue that they gave co-lead rather than supporting performances.
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| Mark Rylance (right) and the real Rudolf Abel (left) |
Best Supporting Actress
Who will win Alicia Vikander The Danish Girl
Who should win Rooney Mara Carol
Not even nominated - go figure Joan Allen Room
Using this category as a dumping ground for lead actress also rans does no one any favours. It taints the achievements of Alicia Vikander and Rooney Mara, who were the central characters in their respective films and means that excellent, truly supporting, performances by the likes of Molly Shannon in Me and Earl and the Dying Girl, Kristen Wiig in Diary of a Teenage Girl, Joan Allen in Room and a hilarious Tilda Swinton in Trainwreck have gone unrecognised. Expect Vikander, who had a stellar 2015, to add an Oscar to her SAG award, though Winslet, with wins at the Globes and the BAFTAS (though not against this Vikander performance), could be a spoiler.
Best Original Screenplay
Who will win Spotlight
Who should win Inside Out
Not even nominated - go figure Mistress America
This may be Spotlight's only win and the film's strength is the way that it condenses a lot of information while remaining compelling and never patronising. Inside Out is the most original and emotionally intelligent nominee however.
This may be Spotlight's only win and the film's strength is the way that it condenses a lot of information while remaining compelling and never patronising. Inside Out is the most original and emotionally intelligent nominee however.
Best Screenplay Adaptation
Who will win The Big Short
Who should win Room
Not even nominated - go figure Me & Earl & the Dying Girl, 45 Years, Anomalisa
A real chance for diversity here, with not one but two ultra deserving gay women in the running (Phyllis Nagy for Carol and Emma Donoghue for Room), though a film written by two straight white men will win for a film featuring Margot Robbie explaining subprime loans in a bathtub.
Best Original Score
Who will win The Hateful Eight
Who should win Carol
Not even nominated - go figure The Revenant
Strange that amongst The Revenant's 12 nominations there is nothing for Ryuichi Sakamoto and Alva Noto's beautiful score. Ennio Morricone has only ever won an honorary award so this year gives the Academy the chance to right that wrong. It's a shame then that his score for The Hateful Eight, which even gets it's own overture at the beginning of the roadshow presentation, is too grandiose for Tarantino's Sergio Leone meets Agatha Christie curate's egg of a film. Carter Burwell has been producing wonderful scores for years and his music for Carol stands with Barton Fink as one of my favourites.
Strange that amongst The Revenant's 12 nominations there is nothing for Ryuichi Sakamoto and Alva Noto's beautiful score. Ennio Morricone has only ever won an honorary award so this year gives the Academy the chance to right that wrong. It's a shame then that his score for The Hateful Eight, which even gets it's own overture at the beginning of the roadshow presentation, is too grandiose for Tarantino's Sergio Leone meets Agatha Christie curate's egg of a film. Carter Burwell has been producing wonderful scores for years and his music for Carol stands with Barton Fink as one of my favourites.
Best Original Song
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| Lady Gaga's solution to the Oscars' diversity problem - bring some friends in black face. |
Who will win "Til it happens to you" The Hunting Ground
Who should win "Manta Ray" Racing Extinction
Not even nominated - go figure "One candle" Racing Extinction
A James Bond theme is usually a good bet in this category but then the best Bond themes, "Nobody does it better" and "Live and let die" went home empty handed in their respective years. Besides, can anyone sing along to Sam Smith's song from Spectre? No didn't think so. Diane Warren has been nominated 8 times before so is due a win for another of her histrionic ballads which means that not only will we have to put up with another Lady Gaga in cruise ship mode performance on Sunday night but she will also get an Oscar for allegedly writing only one line of the song. More deserving winners are J. Ralph and Anohni (from Antony and the Johnsons) for the exquisite "Manta Ray" from Racing Extinction a documentary which also spawned J. Ralph and Sia's One Candle" which is two more decent songs than either Home or 50 Shades of Grey.
A James Bond theme is usually a good bet in this category but then the best Bond themes, "Nobody does it better" and "Live and let die" went home empty handed in their respective years. Besides, can anyone sing along to Sam Smith's song from Spectre? No didn't think so. Diane Warren has been nominated 8 times before so is due a win for another of her histrionic ballads which means that not only will we have to put up with another Lady Gaga in cruise ship mode performance on Sunday night but she will also get an Oscar for allegedly writing only one line of the song. More deserving winners are J. Ralph and Anohni (from Antony and the Johnsons) for the exquisite "Manta Ray" from Racing Extinction a documentary which also spawned J. Ralph and Sia's One Candle" which is two more decent songs than either Home or 50 Shades of Grey.
Best Cinematography
Who will win The Revenant
Who should win Sicario
Not even nominated - go figure Room
Pity poor Roger Deakins, the Coen Brother's go to man behind the camera is on his thirteenth nomination this year. But he won't win - Emmanuel Lubezki will take away his third consecutive award for the natural light beauty he brought to The Revenant.
Pity poor Roger Deakins, the Coen Brother's go to man behind the camera is on his thirteenth nomination this year. But he won't win - Emmanuel Lubezki will take away his third consecutive award for the natural light beauty he brought to The Revenant.
Best Editing
Who will win The Revenant
Who should win Spotlight
Not even nominated - go figure Room
Usually the editing prize goes the same way as Best Picture so if The Revenant sweeps, it will definitely win here too even though Stephen Mirrione failed to take the scissors to the surfeit of ponderous shots of the sky through the trees that slowed the film down. Conversely, Tom McArdle's deft work for Spotlight ensured that the journalistic procedural was never boring and never flagged.
Usually the editing prize goes the same way as Best Picture so if The Revenant sweeps, it will definitely win here too even though Stephen Mirrione failed to take the scissors to the surfeit of ponderous shots of the sky through the trees that slowed the film down. Conversely, Tom McArdle's deft work for Spotlight ensured that the journalistic procedural was never boring and never flagged.
The Other Races
Amy, Son of Saul and Inside Out will win their niche categories and arguably should have been nominated for Best Picture as well. Expect Mad Max and Star Wars to fight it out in the sound and visual effects categories while the toughest competition for Sandy Powell's exemplary work in Carol comes from Sandy Powell for her tizzy confections in Cinderella.
For more on the Oscars go to http://oscar.go.com
Italian viewers can watch the Oscars live next Sunday 28th February (or should I say very early Monday 29th February) on Sky Cinema Oscar for more details go to: http://video.sky.it/cinema/il-meglio-di-cinema/oscar_2016/p2615.pls
Amy, Son of Saul and Inside Out will win their niche categories and arguably should have been nominated for Best Picture as well. Expect Mad Max and Star Wars to fight it out in the sound and visual effects categories while the toughest competition for Sandy Powell's exemplary work in Carol comes from Sandy Powell for her tizzy confections in Cinderella.
For more on the Oscars go to http://oscar.go.com
Italian viewers can watch the Oscars live next Sunday 28th February (or should I say very early Monday 29th February) on Sky Cinema Oscar for more details go to: http://video.sky.it/cinema/il-meglio-di-cinema/oscar_2016/p2615.pls
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